What the AP Top 25 says about CFB in 2024: Is Ohio State a better bet than No. 1 Georgia? (2024)

Amid all the change in college football, from conference realignment to the expansion of the Playoff to 12 teams, arguing about the AP poll remains a constant.

No, the AP Top 25 doesn’t have the national championship meaning it once did, but it’s still a guide to how we think about college football teams before, during and after the season, with nearly 90 years of history to look back on. Though the new postseason will throw new wrinkles into the mix, we can still look at the history of the AP poll to have some fun projecting what this year’s preseason rankings, released Monday, say about how the season will play out.

As I begin my eighth season as a voter, here are 10 thoughts on the preseason AP Top 25 and what it means.

1. Georgia is unlikely to win the national title

Yes, this is a repeat of what I wrote at this time last year.

Though the preseason No. 1 team almost always has a strong season, it rarely wins the national title. Since the preseason rankings debuted in 1950, 12 teams started No. 1 and won at least a share of the championship. That number is a mere four since the poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989: Alabama in 2017, USC in 2004, Florida State in 1999 and Florida State in 1993.

Georgia won back-to-back national titles in 2021 and 2022 starting No. 5 and No. 3, respectively. Last year’s preseason No. 1 Georgia team missed the four-team CFP but won the Orange Bowl and finished fourth.

Twenty-five of the past 35 preseason No. 1 teams finished in the top five — including all 10 in the four-team CFP era. There’s little doubt Georgia will be one of the nation’s best teams, but the preseason consensus (46 of 62 votes) about the best team is usually wrong.

I have Georgia No. 3, behind Ohio State and Texas. It’s hard to ever feel confident about picking against Georgia under Kirby Smart to win the SEC — the same could be said about Alabama under Nick Saban over the last decade — but I believe the Longhorns have the firepower to take down Georgia in Austin on Oct. 19 and go on to win the SEC title.

Of course, the new CFP allows more mulligans than teams got in the past. Even if Georgia loses one or two times in the regular season, it’s going to be the type of team nobody wants to see in December.

2. My No. 1 team is Ohio State. It’s my national title pick too.

I’ve tabbed the national champion as my preseason No. 1 in two of the past three seasons: Georgia in 2021 and Michigan in 2023. Last year in this space, I wrote that Georgia wouldn’t win and No. 2 Michigan would. It’s the most common result: Nine national champions since 1989 have come from the No. 2 spot in the preseason AP poll.

Ohio State doesn’t come without questions — How much of an upgrade over Kyle McCord is Will Howard? Will the O-line be a liability? Can Ryan Day end the losing streak against Michigan as pressure mounts? — but nobody had a better offseason, from retaining premium talent like Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer and Denzel Burke to bringing in coveted transfers like Howard, Caleb Downs and Quinshon Judkins to signing a recruit like No. 1 prospect Jeremiah Smith to bringing in a sitting Power 4 head coach in Chip Kelly to be the offensive coordinator.

I’m one of 15 voters who went with the Buckeyes at No. 1, and I’m surprised that number isn’t higher.

3. Which preseason top-10 team(s) will flop?

Despite bringing back Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, USC plummeted from No. 6 in August to unranked in the final poll last year. It was the fourth consecutive season that the preseason No. 6 team finished unranked.

At least one top-10 team will tumble: An average of 1.7 have finished unranked since 1989, including three each in 2020, 2021 and 2022, and at least one top-10 team has finished unranked in 30 of the past 35 seasons.

Predicting who will fall out from the top 10 is always difficult; we all voted for these teams in or around the top 10 for a reason. But if I had to identify top-10 teams with the most red flags, I’d look at No. 9 Michigan, which is going through almost a total reboot on offense under new head coach Sherrone Moore and faces a schedule with Texas, Ohio State, Oregon and USC (plus Washington, the team it just beat in the title game but has even harsher roster turnover questions).

Ole Miss joins Michigan as the two top-10 teams I didn’t rank in the top 10 on my ballot. Given the relative favorability of Ole Miss’ SEC schedule — the Rebels miss five of the conference’s eight other ranked teams — I’m still confident it will finish in the poll. Penn State and Notre Dame both have favorable schedules, but there’s a chance things turn south if either loses a tricky road opener (Penn State at West Virginia, Notre Dame at Texas A&M) or their quarterbacks don’t take the next step.

4. Michigan is the lowest-ranked defending champion since 2011.

Auburn won the title in 2010 but lost Cam Newton and much of its starting lineup, dropping it to 23rd in the preseason poll in 2011. It went on to finish unranked. The only defending national champion to start outside the top five since then was 2020 LSU, which started No. 6 and finished unranked in a pandemic-altered season.

Michigan, at No. 9, is actually the second-lowest defending national champion since 1990 split champion Colorado (No. 13) in 1991.

In the four-team CFP era, 2020 LSU was the only defending champion to finish outside the top five. In the past 50 years, the only defending champions to finish unranked were 2020 LSU, 2011 Auburn, 2008 LSU, 1991 Georgia Tech, 1987 Penn State and 1983 Penn State. So, yes, saying that Michigan could finish unranked is admittedly bold.

Washington, meanwhile, is the only national championship game participant since the start of the BCS in 1998 to open the next season unranked (TCU started 17th last year before finishing 5-7).

5. Can Alabama extend its top-10 streak?

Saban may be gone, but Alabama is ranked fifth. It’s the 16th consecutive season Alabama has started in the top five dating back to its run from fifth to the national title in 2009. It’s also its worst starting position since 2009, as a 14-year streak of top-four starts has been snapped.

Now Kalen DeBoer is tasked with extending the Crimson Tide’s streak of top-10 finishes to 17. The last time they didn’t finish in the top 10? An unranked debut for Saban in 2007. Given DeBoer’s track record of winning and Alabama’s returning talent, I can’t fault the No. 5 ranking and have the Crimson Tide sixth myself.

6. Who will crash the top 10?

In the four-team era, only two of 40 Playoff teams started the season unranked in the AP poll: TCU in 2022 and Michigan in 2021. Thirty-two of 40 CFP teams started in the top 10. Though many of the usual suspects will surely make the Playoff, there’s a lot more room for teams to come from off the preseason map and crash the postseason.

Missouri was last year’s biggest riser, going from unranked in the preseason poll to No. 8 with an 11-2 record and Cotton Bowl win over Ohio State. An average of 2.1 preseason unranked teams have finished in the top 10 since 1989, including a high of five in 2022 and four in 2021.

The highest-ranked teams on my ballot that are unranked in the poll are Memphis, which I have 24th, and Boise State, which I have 25th, neither of whom I’d predict with much confidence will finish in the top 10. The most likely candidates are sleepers in ACC and Big 12 races, which feel far more wide open than the crowded tops of the SEC and Big Ten. Keep an eye on Iowa State’s experienced roster to make a run in the Big 12 while Louisville and Virginia Tech have intriguing upside in the ACC.

7. How much Top 25 churn will there be?

After a record-low 10 preseason ranked teams finished in the Top 25 in 2022, things normalized in 2023: 17 teams started and finished ranked, including 14 of the top 16. An average of 15.6 preseason ranked teams have finished ranked in the final poll since 1989, meaning it’s reasonable to expect 9-10 teams that are ranked now to be unranked come January.

There’s always churn at the bottom, as teams ranked Nos. 22, 23, 24 and 25 finish ranked less than half the time — including just 23.5 percent of the time for the No. 25 team, which is Iowa this year. The preseason poll features zero Group of 5 teams, and it’s a safe bet that a couple of G5 teams will rise into the rankings, with Memphis, Boise State and Liberty topping my list of candidates.

There’s inevitably going to be disappointment for a few teams in the 16-team SEC (featuring nine ranked teams) and 18-team Big Ten (six), so watch for a few angsty finishes out of those two. I’ll predict USC, Iowa, Arizona, Missouri and Kansas as five of the teams that fade from the Top 25.

8. Could 2024 produce the hardest schedule ever?

Florida is unranked in the preseason for the third consecutive year, something that hadn’t happened since 1988-1990. The news only gets worse: The Gators face the hardest schedule in the country, with eight of 12 teams — Miami, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State — appearing in the preseason poll, all in the top 20. That includes four top-10 teams in the final five games.

The record for most regular-season games against opponents ranked at the time of the game is eight: 2014 Arkansas (2-6 in those games), 2002 USC (6-2) and 1960 Iowa (7-1). Two teams, meanwhile, have played eight regular-season games against teams that finished in the final poll: 1999 Ohio State (2-6) and 1947 Navy (0-7-1).

Include the postseason, and the record for the most games against AP-ranked teams at the time of the game is 10 by 2016 Alabama, which lost the national championship to Clemson. When you combine the consolidation of powerhouse programs into the SEC and Big Ten with the expansion of the CFP to 12 teams, it’s possible someone matches or surpasses that number to play the most ranked opponents in history.

Just don’t expect that team to be Florida, which is just hoping to get to a bowl game.

9. Preseason superlatives

• Georgia is the preseason No. 1 for the third time, joining 2008 and 2023.

• No. 4 Texas is ranked in the preseason top five for the first time since 2010 when it tumbled to unranked after its national title loss the previous year.

• No. 6 Ole Miss has its highest preseason ranking since starting fifth in 1970.

• No. 11 Missouri has its highest preseason ranking since starting sixth in 2008.

• No. 21 is Arizona’s highest preseason ranking since it started fourth but finished unranked in 1999.

• No. 22 Kansas is ranked in the preseason for only the seventh time and the first time since 2009.

10. Superlatives to watch

• Georgia is trying to win its third national title in four years, a feat most recently accomplished by Alabama (2009, 2011, 2012) and Nebraska (1994, 1995, 1997).

• NC State, Rutgers, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest and Virginia are the only current Power 4 teams to have never finished in the AP top 10. Keep an eye on No. 24 NC State, as there could be an opening for a sleeper to win the ACC and make a run to the top 10.

• Kansas is trying to finish ranked in back-to-back seasons for the first time.

• No. 8 Penn State is starting in the top 10 for the fifth time under James Franklin, but it has yet to make the leap to finishing in the top five. It has four top-10 finishes under Franklin but zero top-fives since 2005.

• There has not been a first-time national champion since Florida in 1996. Oregon, which lost in the national title games in 2010 and 2014, is starting third for the fourth time, with high hopes of winning that long-awaited first championship.

• Only eight teams — Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State, Florida State, LSU, Mississippi State and Michigan — appeared at No. 1 in the AP poll during the 10 years of the four-team CFP. That number shrinks to five — Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, LSU and Michigan — since the start of 2016. Michigan emerged to break up the monotony at the top late last year, and Oregon and Texas are the top candidates to do so now.

(Top photo of TreVeyon Henderson: John Fisher / Getty Images)