Stewart Mandel’s ACC predictions: Florida State, Miami on top with 3 new teams in race (2024)

Though the ACC rarely has been a deep conference, it’s usually good for one elite team — think James Winston’s Florida State squads, Clemson with Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence or last year’s Noles.

That does not appear to be the case in 2024.

If an ACC team reaches the Final Four of the first 12-team College Football Playoff, it will mean either Mike Norvell reloaded in a hurry after losing the bulk of last year’s 13-win squad; Dabo Swinney engineered a resurgence without the help of the portal; or Mario Cristobal became the rare recent Miami coach to deliver on the hype.

After that comes a cluster of schools — 2023 runner-up Louisville, forever on-the-cusp NC State and sleeper Virginia Tech — any of which could rise and win the conference if the first three fall flat. I don’t see Georgia Tech winning it, but the Jackets should be decent.

After that … there are a whole lot of rebuilding programs, most either with new coaches (Boston College, Syracuse, Duke) or downward-trending coaches (North Carolina, Pitt).

Thoughts on top contenders

Florida State: The Noles aren’t lacking talent, especially on defense, but they’ll go only as far as DJ Uiagalelei can take them. His ceiling the past four years was not nearly that of Jordan Travis, but it would be one heck of a redemption story if the player Clemson benched in the 2022 ACC title game leads FSU to a win there this year.

Miami: There’s no disputing just how many high-end portal players Cristobal has landed. Ex-Washington State quarterback Cam Ward is an instant upgrade, and Oregon State running back Damien Martinez is one of the nation’s most proven ball carriers. But it’s natural to remain skeptical of a program that’s 0-for-20 chasing ACC championships.

Virginia Tech: The unranked Hokies have become a lot of people’s trendy sleeper pick, but I’m going so far as to predict double-digit wins. Kyron Drones emerged last season as one of the nation’s most impressive dual-threat quarterbacks, and the defense started looking more like an old Bud Foster unit. And Florida State and NC State aren’t on the schedule.

Clemson: The Tigers to their credit rebounded from a brutal 4-4 start to last season to win their last five, with running back Phil Mafah breaking out as a home-run threat. And the defense will be very good once again. But another year went by without Dabo Swinney plugging any holes on his roster. FSU and Miami sure did.

NC State: If Dave Doeren is ever going to break the nine-win glass, this is the year to do it, having landed record-breaking Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall. He has no shortage of assets around him, most notably receivers KC Concepcion and Noah Rogers, a transfer from Ohio State. I worry the defense is going to take a step back.

Thoughts on three new teams

SMU: The Mustangs are coming off a breakout 11-win season, but, that was in the AAC. Only one of the three AAC teams that moved up to the Big 12 last year reached six wins. Anything above .500 in SMU’s first AAC season would be a win.

Cal: Justin Wilcox’s program showed some life last season in getting to its first bowl in four years, and running back Jaydn Ott is a stud. But the Bears’ once-stout defense took a nosedive the past two seasons. Cal might be fortunate to return to .500.

Stanford: Troy Taylor took over a rock-bottom program last year. Stanford went 3-9 but showed some bright spots, like a wild 29-point comeback at Colorado. The rebuild will take more time, but receiver Elic Ayomanor could be a thorn for some folks this fall.

(Photos of DJ Uiagalelei, left, and Cam Ward: Melina Myers / USA Today; Marta Lavandier / Associated Press)

Stewart Mandel is editor-in-chief of The Athletic's college football coverage. He has been a national college football writer for two decades with Sports Illustrated and Fox Sports. He co-hosts "The Audible" podcast with Bruce Feldman. Follow Stewart on Twitter @slmandel