BAQ ANALYSIS – 7/6/2024
RACE 1: 2-5-4-1
#2 CYCLONE STATE is training well according to the clockers and is out of a mare who was a multiple stake winner. This barn is not known for keeping horses in top form for long, but can definitely have one ready on debut. He should have some speed and there’s often no telling what’ll happen in these races.
RACE 2: 2-3-1
#3 DOMESTIC PRODUCT is the one to beat on the cutback in distance for trainer Chad Brown after a troubled trip in the Pegasus last time out. He was hopelessly wide around the first turn and eventually gave it up in the stretch. This is a good spot for him to rebound and his future is likely around one turn.
RACE 3: 6-2-5-1
#6 FORE HARP is capable of upsetting here off a short layoff given the drop in class. The runners from the barn of “Butch” Reid often fare well in NY and this gelding is quick enough to get command in the opening stages today. His best turf race was a wire job just over a year ago and he seems to have landed in an ideal spot today.
RACE 4: 5-4-1-3
#5 LOW SOCIETY changes surfaces for trainer Linda Rice and should be in a good spot just off the pace today. Rice’s barn is 36% with claimers going turf to dirt ($2.80 ROI) and this gel was an impressive winner in her last main track outing. She has done the majority of her damage over this oval and should be a major threat today.
RACE 5: 4-2-3-6
#4 GENTLEMAN JOE is the one to beat after scratches given his recent form and the claim by Rick Dutrow, Jr. He is likely better going shorter and has been at his best over this oval in the past. The job got a lot easier with Digital and ‘Kneedeep coming out so you can count on this one being a short price and likely winner.
RACE 6: 5-3-4-1
#5 ENDLESSLY is clearly the one to beat in his return to turf for trainer Michael McCarthy. He was fast enough as a 2YO to win this race based on speed figures and he’ll be impossible to beat with a forward move. There’s enough pace to set up his late run and the distance should be right in his wheelhouse.
RACE 7: 7-1-2-5
#7 ANDY CANT is a major player here off a claim and quick return to the races. He has tactical speed that will put him in an advantageous position early and there’s not a great deal of early zip in this bunch. Trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci is 17% with dirt sprinters off the claim over the last five years ($2.02 ROI).
RACE 8: 4-5-3-1
#4 COASTAL MISSION is a late threat for trainer Jeff Runco and cuts back off a good effort in the Salvator Mile. He should be able to settle and make one run, which has led to some of his best efforts. The 4th place finish two starts back came with a less than ideal trip given that he had to come from off the pace and dive inside late, which was not the place to be on Preakness Day.
RACE 9: 5-7-3-6
Though trainer Andrew Balding has had limited forays into American racing over the years, he nearly won last year’s Belmont Derby with The Foxes and has #5 SECRET SATIRE ready in here. She was a non factor in the Betfred Oaks last time out after pulling hard early and weakening late. An American style race with a faster pace will likely suit her and she could end up on the lead today.
RACE 10: 7-6-2-4
#7 CAPTURE THE FLAG was never cut out to be a turf sprinter and now gets more ground 2nd off a layoff for new trainer Todd Pletcher. This is a distance that’s much more suitable for this son of Quality Road who hit his stride late last time out. He should be more involved early on the stretchout this afternoon.
RACE 11: 1A-8-6-3
The debut performance of #1A RESEARCH RESULTS was good enough to make him a heavy favorite today. He showed interest from start to finish and narrowly missed in this affair, so expect improvement at second asking. His tactical speed is a major weapon as well and he meets a soft group for this level.
